{
 "spec_version": "0.4",
 "issue_date": "2026-09-04",
 "close_date": "2026-09-03",
 "sample": {
  "n": 327,
  "range": "2025-06-02 to 2026-09-03"
 },
 "context": {
  "kc_front_cents": 310.85,
  "basis_cents": 13.0,
  "usd_to_eur": 0.8793
 },
 "horizons": [
  {
   "key": "1w",
   "days": 5,
   "rank_published": true,
   "independent_windows": 1054,
   "ranked_rows": 12,
   "of_rows": 12
  },
  {
   "key": "2w",
   "days": 10,
   "rank_published": true,
   "independent_windows": 526,
   "ranked_rows": 12,
   "of_rows": 12
  },
  {
   "key": "1m",
   "days": 21,
   "rank_published": false,
   "independent_windows": 262,
   "ranked_rows": 1,
   "of_rows": 12
  },
  {
   "key": "3m",
   "days": 63,
   "rank_published": false,
   "independent_windows": 80,
   "ranked_rows": 1,
   "of_rows": 12
  },
  {
   "key": "12m",
   "days": 252,
   "rank_published": false,
   "independent_windows": 20,
   "ranked_rows": 1,
   "of_rows": 12
  }
 ],
 "thresholds": {
  "quintile_pct": 20.0,
  "tail_pct": 5.0,
  "min_independent_windows": 15,
  "persistence_min_weeks": 2
 },
 "groups": [
  {
   "name": "Levels",
   "unit": "% change",
   "rows": [
    {
     "key": "whole",
     "label": "Whole-market arabica",
     "value": 323.85,
     "rank": 34.3,
     "mark": null,
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": -3.92,
       "rank": 21.4,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": -9.01,
       "rank": 8.5,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "lo",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": -4.97,
       "rank": 33.3,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": 18.77,
       "rank": 84.5,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": -21.68,
       "rank": 9.3,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "washed",
     "label": "Washed-weighted arabica",
     "value": 331.75,
     "rank": 39.4,
     "mark": null,
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": -3.88,
       "rank": 20.8,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": -8.78,
       "rank": 7.3,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "lo",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": -4.79,
       "rank": 33.0,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": 18.86,
       "rank": 83.7,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": -20.72,
       "rank": 9.3,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "colmild",
     "label": "Colombian milds",
     "value": 366.51,
     "rank": 50.8,
     "mark": null,
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": -3.5,
       "rank": 20.5,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": -7.75,
       "rank": 8.8,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "lo",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": -3.58,
       "rank": 35.0,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": 21.25,
       "rank": 81.8,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": -14.51,
       "rank": 12.0,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "othmild",
     "label": "Other milds",
     "value": 338.76,
     "rank": 39.4,
     "mark": null,
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": -3.98,
       "rank": 18.0,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "lo",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": -8.64,
       "rank": 6.9,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "lo",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": -4.87,
       "rank": 31.4,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": 17.87,
       "rank": 83.0,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": -20.95,
       "rank": 9.3,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "brznat",
     "label": "Brazilian naturals",
     "value": 300.83,
     "rank": 18.7,
     "mark": {
      "dir": "lo",
      "tier": "quintile"
     },
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": -4.04,
       "rank": 23.0,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": -9.76,
       "rank": 8.2,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "lo",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": -5.58,
       "rank": 32.7,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": 18.5,
       "rank": 85.6,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": -24.62,
       "rank": 4.0,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "robusta",
     "label": "Robustas",
     "value": 166.66,
     "rank": 15.3,
     "mark": {
      "dir": "lo",
      "tier": "quintile"
     },
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": -4.06,
       "rank": 18.0,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "lo",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": -8.52,
       "rank": 9.5,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "lo",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": -11.09,
       "rank": 11.1,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": 4.4,
       "rank": 62.5,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": -24.85,
       "rank": 0.0,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Spreads",
   "unit": "change in c/lb",
   "rows": [
    {
     "key": "arabrob",
     "label": "Arabica − robusta",
     "value": 157.19,
     "rank": 49.8,
     "mark": null,
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": -6.16,
       "rank": 31.1,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": -16.56,
       "rank": 14.8,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "lo",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": 3.83,
       "rank": 57.8,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": 44.17,
       "rank": 94.7,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": -34.55,
       "rank": 14.7,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "tilt",
     "label": "Washed tilt",
     "value": 7.9,
     "rank": 92.7,
     "mark": {
      "dir": "hi",
      "tier": "quintile"
     },
     "weeks": 13,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": -0.19,
       "rank": 22.0,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": 0.15,
       "rank": 48.9,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": 0.27,
       "rank": 53.3,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": 1.45,
       "rank": 66.3,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": 2.95,
       "rank": 42.7,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "colbrz",
     "label": "Colombian − Brazilian",
     "value": 65.68,
     "rank": 96.0,
     "mark": {
      "dir": "hi",
      "tier": "tail"
     },
     "weeks": 13,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": -0.63,
       "rank": 29.5,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": 1.74,
       "rank": 58.0,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": 4.16,
       "rank": 68.3,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": 17.28,
       "rank": 73.5,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": 36.07,
       "rank": 61.3,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "colothr",
     "label": "Colombian − other milds",
     "value": 27.75,
     "rank": 98.2,
     "mark": {
      "dir": "hi",
      "tier": "tail"
     },
     "weeks": 12,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": 0.75,
       "rank": 59.3,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": 1.23,
       "rank": 57.1,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": 3.72,
       "rank": 64.7,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": 12.88,
       "rank": 71.6,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": 27.57,
       "rank": 80.0,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Volatility",
   "unit": "",
   "rows": [
    {
     "key": "vol20",
     "label": "Realized vol 20d, % ann.",
     "value": 36.3,
     "rank": 83.7,
     "mark": {
      "dir": "hi",
      "tier": "quintile"
     },
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": -0.27,
       "rank": 42.1,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": 7.64,
       "rank": 90.6,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "hi",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": -12.05,
       "rank": 14.3,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": 15.01,
       "rank": 84.4,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": 6.06,
       "rank": 56.4,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "ru20",
     "label": "Max run-up, 20d (c/lb)",
     "value": 29.5,
     "rank": 55.7,
     "mark": null,
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": false,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": null,
       "rank": null,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": null,
       "rank": null,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": null,
       "rank": null,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": null,
       "rank": null,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": null,
       "rank": null,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "dd20",
     "label": "Max drawdown, 20d (c/lb)",
     "value": -44.94,
     "rank": 23.1,
     "mark": null,
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": false,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": null,
       "rank": null,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": null,
       "rank": null,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": null,
       "rank": null,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": null,
       "rank": null,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": null,
       "rank": null,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "cot_mm_pct_oi",
     "label": "Managed money net, % of OI",
     "value": 19.49,
     "rank": 76.5,
     "mark": null,
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": 0.13,
       "rank": 52.4,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": 0.83,
       "rank": 58.9,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": -0.88,
       "rank": 44.5,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": 7.62,
       "rank": 77.1,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": -3.0,
       "rank": 42.2,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  }
 ],
 "census": {
  "marked": 16,
  "tail": 2,
  "quintile_only": 14
 },
 "clusters": [
  [
   "colbrz",
   "colothr",
   "tilt"
  ]
 ],
 "correlations": [
  {
   "a": "tilt",
   "b": "colbrz",
   "r": 0.945
  },
  {
   "a": "colbrz",
   "b": "colothr",
   "r": 0.86
  },
  {
   "a": "tilt",
   "b": "colothr",
   "r": 0.646
  },
  {
   "a": "arabrob",
   "b": "colothr",
   "r": -0.188
  },
  {
   "a": "arabrob",
   "b": "colbrz",
   "r": -0.053
  },
  {
   "a": "arabrob",
   "b": "tilt",
   "r": 0.041
  }
 ],
 "forward": {
  "ratio": 0.34754857263098826,
  "curve_move_cents": -49.55000000000001,
  "envelope_cents": 142.57000000000005,
  "caption": "The futures market is pricing a 49.55c fall over the next twelve months. Over any twelve-month stretch in our record the physical index has moved as much as 143c. The curve is promising about 35% of what this market has actually delivered."
 },
 "conversion_desk": {
  "origin": "Colombia",
  "base_cents": 323.85,
  "origin_diff_cents": 10.0,
  "us_port": "Houston",
  "eu_port": "Antwerp",
  "us_usd_per_lb": 3.3335000000000004,
  "eu_usd_per_lb": 3.326,
  "eu_eur_per_lb": 2.9245518,
  "steps": [
   "start at the whole-market index, 323.85c",
   "apply the Colombia origin differential, +10.00c",
   "apply the Antwerp port differential, -1.25c  ->  332.60c",
   "convert to dollars per pound, $3.3260",
   "convert at USD/EUR 0.8793, EUR 2.9246/lb"
  ]
 },
 "pending": [
  {
   "key": "basis",
   "label": "Basis to KC front",
   "status": "level only",
   "note": "Needs a back-adjusted continuous KC front series aligned to the physical dates. Highest priority in the queue."
  },
  {
   "key": "curve_slope",
   "label": "Curve slope, front to 12-month",
   "status": "level only",
   "note": "Curve logs exist per run but are not assembled into a series."
  },
  {
   "key": "ice_stocks",
   "label": "ICE certified stocks",
   "status": "not connected",
   "note": "Daily from ICE. Track the EUDR legacy/transition components, not the headline bag count — the total is no longer homogeneous."
  },
  {
   "key": "cot_managed_money",
   "label": "CFTC managed money net",
   "status": "not connected",
   "note": "Weekly, CFTC contract code 083731, ICE Futures U.S. Disaggregated COT. History to 2006, so its ranks would publish at every horizon."
  }
 ],
 "downloads": {
  "arabica_index_history": "arabica_index_history_2026-09-03.csv",
  "ico_daily_prices": "ico_daily_prices_2026-09-03.csv"
 }
}