{
 "spec_version": "0.4",
 "issue_date": "2026-10-24",
 "close_date": "2026-10-22",
 "sample": {
  "n": 362,
  "range": "2025-06-02 to 2026-10-22"
 },
 "context": {
  "kc_front_cents": 306.0,
  "basis_cents": 22.03,
  "usd_to_eur": 0.892
 },
 "horizons": [
  {
   "key": "1w",
   "days": 5,
   "rank_published": true,
   "independent_windows": 1062,
   "ranked_rows": 12,
   "of_rows": 12
  },
  {
   "key": "2w",
   "days": 10,
   "rank_published": true,
   "independent_windows": 530,
   "ranked_rows": 12,
   "of_rows": 12
  },
  {
   "key": "1m",
   "days": 21,
   "rank_published": true,
   "independent_windows": 264,
   "ranked_rows": 12,
   "of_rows": 12
  },
  {
   "key": "3m",
   "days": 63,
   "rank_published": false,
   "independent_windows": 80,
   "ranked_rows": 1,
   "of_rows": 12
  },
  {
   "key": "12m",
   "days": 252,
   "rank_published": false,
   "independent_windows": 20,
   "ranked_rows": 1,
   "of_rows": 12
  }
 ],
 "thresholds": {
  "quintile_pct": 20.0,
  "tail_pct": 5.0,
  "min_independent_windows": 15,
  "persistence_min_weeks": 2
 },
 "groups": [
  {
   "name": "Levels",
   "unit": "% change",
   "rows": [
    {
     "key": "whole",
     "label": "Whole-market arabica",
     "value": 328.03,
     "rank": 44.8,
     "mark": null,
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": 3.63,
       "rank": 78.7,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": 5.17,
       "rank": 82.7,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "hi",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": 9.34,
       "rank": 85.0,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "hi",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": -2.59,
       "rank": 50.5,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": -15.04,
       "rank": 41.8,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "washed",
     "label": "Washed-weighted arabica",
     "value": 336.14,
     "rank": 47.5,
     "mark": null,
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": 3.57,
       "rank": 79.6,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": 5.07,
       "rank": 82.7,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "hi",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": 8.99,
       "rank": 85.0,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "hi",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": -2.37,
       "rank": 50.2,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": -13.99,
       "rank": 41.8,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "colmild",
     "label": "Colombian milds",
     "value": 366.43,
     "rank": 53.3,
     "mark": null,
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": 2.95,
       "rank": 74.8,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": 3.6,
       "rank": 77.0,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": 6.85,
       "rank": 81.2,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "hi",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": -2.1,
       "rank": 47.5,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": -8.24,
       "rank": 42.7,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "othmild",
     "label": "Other milds",
     "value": 346.0,
     "rank": 48.9,
     "mark": null,
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": 3.73,
       "rank": 80.7,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "hi",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": 5.54,
       "rank": 83.2,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "hi",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": 9.13,
       "rank": 85.3,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "hi",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": -1.86,
       "rank": 50.5,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": -13.71,
       "rank": 41.8,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "brznat",
     "label": "Brazilian naturals",
     "value": 304.4,
     "rank": 29.0,
     "mark": null,
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": 3.81,
       "rank": 79.0,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": 5.52,
       "rank": 82.4,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "hi",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": 10.47,
       "rank": 86.2,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "hi",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": -3.29,
       "rank": 48.8,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": -18.27,
       "rank": 38.2,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "robusta",
     "label": "Robustas",
     "value": 160.57,
     "rank": 3.0,
     "mark": {
      "dir": "lo",
      "tier": "tail"
     },
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": -2.22,
       "rank": 32.8,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": -2.88,
       "rank": 33.8,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": -0.99,
       "rank": 55.1,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": -13.44,
       "rank": 13.4,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": -25.83,
       "rank": 1.8,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Spreads",
   "unit": "change in c/lb",
   "rows": [
    {
     "key": "arabrob",
     "label": "Arabica − robusta",
     "value": 167.46,
     "rank": 74.0,
     "mark": null,
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": 15.13,
       "rank": 90.8,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "hi",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": 20.9,
       "rank": 90.1,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "hi",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": 29.62,
       "rank": 90.3,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "hi",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": 16.21,
       "rank": 71.2,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": -2.17,
       "rank": 60.9,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "tilt",
     "label": "Washed tilt",
     "value": 8.11,
     "rank": 95.3,
     "mark": {
      "dir": "hi",
      "tier": "tail"
     },
     "weeks": 9,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": 0.1,
       "rank": 53.8,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": 0.08,
       "rank": 45.2,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": -0.29,
       "rank": 27.9,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": 0.56,
       "rank": 56.9,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": 3.41,
       "rank": 78.2,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "colbrz",
     "label": "Colombian − Brazilian",
     "value": 62.03,
     "rank": 81.5,
     "mark": {
      "dir": "hi",
      "tier": "quintile"
     },
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": -0.69,
       "rank": 29.7,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": -3.18,
       "rank": 13.1,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "lo",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": -5.36,
       "rank": 11.4,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "lo",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": 2.5,
       "rank": 46.8,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": 35.15,
       "rank": 51.8,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "colothr",
     "label": "Colombian − other milds",
     "value": 20.43,
     "rank": 75.1,
     "mark": null,
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": -1.96,
       "rank": 17.1,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "lo",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": -5.43,
       "rank": 8.2,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "lo",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": -5.46,
       "rank": 9.1,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "lo",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": -1.3,
       "rank": 19.4,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": 22.06,
       "rank": 32.7,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "name": "Volatility",
   "unit": "",
   "rows": [
    {
     "key": "vol20",
     "label": "Realized vol 20d, % ann.",
     "value": 26.49,
     "rank": 26.3,
     "mark": null,
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": -0.5,
       "rank": 43.0,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": -1.16,
       "rank": 38.9,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": 3.68,
       "rank": 73.5,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": -39.97,
       "rank": 0.4,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": -2.82,
       "rank": 43.3,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "ru20",
     "label": "Max run-up, 20d (c/lb)",
     "value": 31.47,
     "rank": 62.9,
     "mark": null,
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": false,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": null,
       "rank": null,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": null,
       "rank": null,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": null,
       "rank": null,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": null,
       "rank": null,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": null,
       "rank": null,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "dd20",
     "label": "Max drawdown, 20d (c/lb)",
     "value": -14.83,
     "rank": 89.2,
     "mark": {
      "dir": "hi",
      "tier": "quintile"
     },
     "weeks": 2,
     "has_changes": false,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": null,
       "rank": null,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": null,
       "rank": null,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": null,
       "rank": null,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": null,
       "rank": null,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": null,
       "rank": null,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": false
      }
     ]
    },
    {
     "key": "cot_mm_pct_oi",
     "label": "Managed money net, % of OI",
     "value": 13.07,
     "rank": 60.9,
     "mark": null,
     "weeks": null,
     "has_changes": true,
     "cells": [
      {
       "horizon": "1w",
       "change": 3.74,
       "rank": 89.6,
       "mark": {
        "dir": "hi",
        "tier": "quintile"
       },
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "2w",
       "change": 1.38,
       "rank": 63.9,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "1m",
       "change": 2.74,
       "rank": 67.7,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "3m",
       "change": -7.3,
       "rank": 25.9,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      },
      {
       "horizon": "12m",
       "change": -14.63,
       "rank": 22.8,
       "mark": null,
       "rank_published": true
      }
     ]
    }
   ]
  }
 ],
 "census": {
  "marked": 23,
  "tail": 2,
  "quintile_only": 21
 },
 "clusters": [
  [
   "colbrz",
   "colothr",
   "tilt"
  ]
 ],
 "correlations": [
  {
   "a": "tilt",
   "b": "colbrz",
   "r": 0.959
  },
  {
   "a": "colbrz",
   "b": "colothr",
   "r": 0.897
  },
  {
   "a": "tilt",
   "b": "colothr",
   "r": 0.736
  },
  {
   "a": "arabrob",
   "b": "colothr",
   "r": -0.237
  },
  {
   "a": "arabrob",
   "b": "colbrz",
   "r": -0.125
  },
  {
   "a": "arabrob",
   "b": "tilt",
   "r": -0.039
  }
 ],
 "forward": {
  "ratio": 0.17181274900398416,
  "curve_move_cents": -27.600000000000023,
  "envelope_cents": 160.64000000000004,
  "caption": "The futures market is pricing a 27.60c fall over the next twelve months. Over any twelve-month stretch in our record the physical index has moved as much as 161c. The curve is promising about 17% of what this market has actually delivered."
 },
 "conversion_desk": {
  "origin": "Colombia",
  "base_cents": 328.03,
  "origin_diff_cents": 10.0,
  "us_port": "Houston",
  "eu_port": "Antwerp",
  "us_usd_per_lb": 3.3752999999999997,
  "eu_usd_per_lb": 3.3678,
  "eu_eur_per_lb": 3.0040776,
  "steps": [
   "start at the whole-market index, 328.03c",
   "apply the Colombia origin differential, +10.00c",
   "apply the Antwerp port differential, -1.25c  ->  336.78c",
   "convert to dollars per pound, $3.3678",
   "convert at USD/EUR 0.8920, EUR 3.0041/lb"
  ]
 },
 "pending": [
  {
   "key": "basis",
   "label": "Basis to KC front",
   "status": "level only",
   "note": "Needs a back-adjusted continuous KC front series aligned to the physical dates. Highest priority in the queue."
  },
  {
   "key": "curve_slope",
   "label": "Curve slope, front to 12-month",
   "status": "level only",
   "note": "Curve logs exist per run but are not assembled into a series."
  },
  {
   "key": "ice_stocks",
   "label": "ICE certified stocks",
   "status": "not connected",
   "note": "Daily from ICE. Track the EUDR legacy/transition components, not the headline bag count — the total is no longer homogeneous."
  },
  {
   "key": "cot_managed_money",
   "label": "CFTC managed money net",
   "status": "not connected",
   "note": "Weekly, CFTC contract code 083731, ICE Futures U.S. Disaggregated COT. History to 2006, so its ranks would publish at every horizon."
  }
 ],
 "downloads": {
  "arabica_index_history": "arabica_index_history_2026-10-22.csv",
  "ico_daily_prices": "ico_daily_prices_2026-10-22.csv"
 }
}