The CRS Arabica Report — 2026-07-24

In one line: September 2026 front at 310.85c; physical above paper; curve in backwardation.

Every figure below traces to a sourced input; no freight, insurance, or duty is assumed.

1. Front month

A roll is in progress, so the two definitions diverge:

Definition	Contract	Symbol	Price (c/lb)	Settles
Headline — liquidity front	September 2026 (U26)	KCU26.NYB	310.85	2026-09-30
Nearest delivery	July 2026 (N26)	KCN26.NYB	335.25	2026-07-31

We headline the liquidity front because that is the number the news means by "the coffee price." Both are priced from their explicit contract symbols, so label and price always agree.

2. Headline price, decoded

Measure	Value
U26 price	310.85 c/lb
USD per lb	$3.1085
Per contract (37,500 lb)	$116,568.75
One tick (0.05c)	$18.75

Source: Yahoo Finance KCU26.NYB (explicit contract).

3. Contract-basis price by origin & port

Applies the ICE spec's origin (points) and port (cents) differentials. This is a contract-basis reference, not a physical quote — real specialty lots trade at separately-negotiated physical differentials, usually far above these structural numbers.

Origin	Diff (pts)	US Gulf (c/lb)	Europe (c/lb)
Colombia	+1000	320.35	319.60
Brazil	-600	304.35	303.60
Honduras	+0	310.35	309.60

4. ICO arabica re-index (robusta stripped)

ICO group prices: ICO I-CIP June 2026 monthly averages (sample)

Group	Price (c/lb)	Type
Colombian Milds	362.89	arabica
Other Milds	339.05	arabica
Brazilian Naturals	300.00	arabica
Robustas	179.20	robusta (excluded)

These sector prices are listed as a rough guide before the unique arabica indices below.

We strip robusta and rebuild the arabica market two ways:

Index	What it is	Weights	Value (c/lb)	Δ vs prev day
Whole-Market Arabica	All arabica, weighted as it trades globally	Colombian 16.1%, Other 32.7%, Brazilian 51.1%	322.93	-3.63%
Washed-Weighted Arabica	Down-weights natural-process Brazil (naturals ×0.5), toward washed coffee closer to the KC basis	Colombian 21.7%, Other 44.0%, Brazilian 34.3%	330.81	-3.42%

Δ vs prev day = daily percent change against 2026-07-22 (the previous market day in the dataset).

The two differ by 7.87 c/lb — that gap is the effect of the washed tilt (how much Brazilian naturals pull the average down).

5. Ex-dock reference price (port + FX only)

FX (USD→EUR): 0.8793 (Yahoo Finance USDEUR=X). US port: Houston (-0.50 c/lb); EU port: Antwerp (-1.25 c/lb).

The ICO physical price at each region's contract port basis and currency. Not a landed cost — excludes freight, insurance, and duty by design.

Basis	US ex-dock (USD/lb)	EU ex-dock (USD/lb)	EU ex-dock (EUR/lb)
Whole-Market Arabica	3.2243	3.2168	2.8286
Washed-Weighted Arabica	3.3031	3.2956	2.8978

6. Forward curve (COGS horizon pricing)

The next delivery months side by side. Later months costing more is contango (comfortable near-term supply); costing less is backwardation (tight supply now). Spread is each month's premium (+) or discount (−) to the nearest priced contract.

Contract	Symbol	Price (c/lb)	Spread (c/lb)	US base ($/lb)	EU base (EUR/lb)
July 2026	KCN26.NYB	335.25	BASE	3.3475	2.9369
September 2026	KCU26.NYB	310.85	▼ 24.40	3.1035	2.7223
December 2026	KCZ26.NYB	297.45	▼ 37.80	2.9695	2.6045
March 2027	KCH27.NYB	291.10	▼ 44.15	2.9060	2.5487
May 2027	KCK27.NYB	289.70	▼ 45.55	2.8920	2.5363
July 2027	KCN27.NYB	285.70	▼ 49.55	2.8520	2.5012

7. Forward risk horizons (physical-market historical volatility)

For each contract, the worst historical run-up and drawdown of the arabica physical index over a window as long as the days remaining to settlement. A risk proxy from history, not a forecast. Windows overlap; one sample regime.

Sample: 297 trading days (2025-06-02 to 2026-07-23). Values in USD/lb.

Contract	Horizon	Whole-Mkt run-up	Whole-Mkt draw	Washed run-up	Washed draw
July 2026	7d	+0.4347	-0.6921	+0.4380	-0.6929
September 2026	68d	+1.2820	-0.7781	+1.2861	-0.7800
December 2026	160d	+0.8448	-1.2224	+0.8510	-1.2460
March 2027	250d	+0.3326	-1.3337	+0.3099	-1.3406
May 2027	311d	+0.2496	-1.0068	+0.2431	-0.9800
July 2027	371d	+0.6177	-1.0206	+0.6670	-1.0127

Run-up / drawdown are in USD/lb. Port differentials cancel in a change, so these move-sizes apply to both regions; only the absolute ex-dock levels in section 5 differ by port and FX.

How to read this

KC=F is a forward, arabica-only futures price. The ICO index is a trailing physical composite. They should move together and inform each other — the gaps (KC vs physical, US vs EU, Whole-Market vs Washed-Weighted, and the forward spreads) are where the market intelligence lives. Nothing here is an assumed value. Thank you for choosing CRS.